Looking Ahead to 2032: BLS Peers into Its Crystal Ball

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) never stops cranking out data and statistics on wage earners and job seekers for the US Department of Labor, but this month they’ve really outdone themselves.

Just posted in October over at bls.gov is a tremendous article with the catchy title “Industry and occupational employment projections overview and highlights, 2022–32”—chock full of all the charts, tables, and citations your heart could desire—in which the bureau lays out an expansive and detailed view of what they believe the labor market has in store for us over the next 10 years.

We’ve done our best to boil down what it all means for job seekers, starting with some quick bullets and continuing with a slightly more in-depth breakdown.

2022–2032 Employment Projections Fast Facts

• Employment and real output (the value of goods and services) should grow between now and 2032.
• The total economy will add about 4.7 million jobs over the decade.
• Employment is expected to grow from 164.5 million in 2022 to 169.1 million in 2032, slower than the previous decade because of a declining labor force.
• Wage and salary employment will rise, along with the number of self-employed workers.
• Employment in fossil-fuel-related utilities will likely decline as green energy experiences rapid growth.
• Gains are projected in these sectors:
  • Healthcare/social assistance, driven by the aging population and rise in chronic conditions
  • Professional/scientific/technical services, driven by demand for IT products and services
  • Information and transportation/warehousing, driven by the growth of the digital economy
  • Losses are projected in these sectors:
    • Retail trade, due to the continued growth of e-commerce
    • Manufacturing, due to automation (exception: battery and semiconductor production)
    • Production/sales and related occupational groups, due to declines in the above two industries

Healthcare and social assistance will grow the fastest

Along with social assistance (individual/family services, community food/housing, vocational rehabilitation, child day care), healthcare jobs will skyrocket, accounting for 45% percent of all new jobs in the next 10 years as the population gets older and suffers more chronic illnesses like heart disease and diabetes. Obviously, this is a huge opportunity for people seeking jobs in those roles.

IT will supercharge professional, scientific, and technical services

Thanks to the digital economy and growing demand for information technology products and services, the professional, scientific, and technical services sector will account for 21% percent of new jobs in the time period. If you’re in these fields, particularly computer and mathematical occupations, you’re in for a promising decade.

Green energy will be a growing niche. Fossil fuels? Not so much

Naturally, the expected rise in green energy jobs will go hand in hand with the decline of fossil fuel–related industries. The energy transition is set to provide solid job opportunities for workers who are environmentally conscious and interested in renewable energy.

Digital content will be king: long live the information sector

We’re already in the midst of a seismic shift from traditional to digital media driven by the relentless growth of Internet usage. Tech, content creation, and data analysis will dominate even more in the coming years, with digital content driving up online engagement and hastening the demise of traditional media like print newspapers and radio. Job seekers need to embrace this reality.

Internet, software, data, streaming, and social media will continue ascending

Americans spend almost twice as much time engaged with digital media today as they did 10 years ago—over 7 hours per day. This monumental shift cannot have escaped your notice. Government initiatives bridging Internet access gaps, next-gen gaming going global (one of the factors in software publishing’s staggering 17.8% growth outlook), cloud computing getting cheaper, the Internet of Things going mainstream, streaming and social media spurring widespread cord-cutting . . . it’s pretty clear where the trends for job seekers in these fields are pointing.

E-commerce is hurting retail but helping transportation and warehousing

The silver lining of the precipitous movement of jobs away from retail is that the flourishing of e-commerce will lead to employment growth in couriers/express delivery services and warehousing/storage, key components of the fourth fastest growing sector over the coming decade. Freight transportation, heavy trucking, logistics coordination, and food/grocery delivery are looking up. Light truck drivers, stockers, order fillers, hand laborers, and freight/stock/material movers should see higher job growth than the average for all occupations.

The manufacturing sector also faces steep declines (but not everywhere)

Automation is the main culprit in the projected slide in production occupations and manufacturing—to the tune of 113,400 jobs lost over the next decade, the second-largest decline after that of retail trade. But job seekers can look to battery and semiconductor manufacturing as strong product demand, government policies promoting domestic production, and the reshoring of certain manufacturing activities to the United States all promise steady growth.

• Production of electric vehicle batteries supported by federal tax credits, along with energy battery storage systems required by the renewable energy sector, will drive the expansion.
• Growing demand for semiconductors in semiautonomous vehicles, 5G networks, and IoT devices will also contribute to this growth. (Thanks, CHIPS and Science Act!)

A few caveats as we conclude

Ten years is a long time. While these long-term projections provide valuable insights, they come with a degree of uncertainty. Technological changes and unforeseen developments can impact the job market. Therefore, adaptability is key. Staying flexible in the evolving job landscape, being prepared for new opportunities, and remaining knowledgeable about industry trends are your best tools for success.